Getting to know CBA’s new Chief Economist

Since Luke Yeaman joined CBA as Chief Economist in March, the introduction of U.S. trade tariffs has upended the global economy and financial markets. While the endpoint is unclear, it appears the era of trade liberalisation, free market reforms, deregulation and fiscal discipline has been unwound as outlined in Luke’s recent research paper here.

Prior to joining CBA, Luke Yeaman spent his career in the Australian Public Service, working on everything from monetary policy and migration to national security and energy markets, giving him a real appreciation for the far-reaching impacts economics has on people’s everyday lives

“Economics gives us a framework to understand how the world works and how people and systems respond to different events, incentives and choices,” Luke said.

“That can apply to something as simple as choosing what to buy at the supermarket or which phone plan to choose, right up to global billion-dollar investment or trading decisions.”

In keeping with this philosophy, Luke sees the ability to leverage CBA’s extensive data set to derive a unique view on the economy and everyday Australians as one of the most interesting opportunities as the bank’s new Chief Economist.

“Because CBA is Australia’s largest bank, it has great insights into how the economy is performing which I can then feedback and add value in the way we do work as an economics team.”

“In my first few weeks on the job, I’ve had the opportunity to go out and meet with some of our great customers across the country and hear what’s on their mind. There’s a lot of interest right now in what’s happening in the global economy – there’s a lot of risk and volatility. They want to know what that means for the Australian economy, and their own business,” Luke said.

“I plan to harness my experience to bring a deeper understanding of how major structural challenges and government policies will affect the economy and our customers. This is particularly important right now given the uncertain global environment.”

The recent tariff wars provided a significant global economic shock that will continue playing out across markets, while Luke notes that China’s sluggish consumer sector and deeper structural issues will be another major story to watch for Australia.

“While the direct impact of the U.S. tariffs on Australia is likely going to be limited, the indirect effects from any slowdown in the global economy and in particular China could be more significant.”

“If both China and the US experience a slowdown, Australia won’t be immune from the ripple effects. These are trends that could shape trade, investment, and confidence at home.”

Domestically, the outlook is also complex. One of the key challenges for Australia this year will be navigating the delicate balance between inflation, interest rates, and economic growth.

“Here at home, we are seeing some positive signs in the Australian economy, but we’ll want to look closely to see whether inflation is continuing to come down, creating room for further interest rates cuts over the course of this year.”

Luke is also focused on several domestic pressure points. Housing affordability, rising electricity and insurance costs, and increasing demands on public budgets, particularly in areas like Defence, Aged Care, and Disability are all front of mind.

With a deep understanding of policy, a passion for data, and a commitment to clear, accessible communication, he’s determined to help CBA’s customers and stakeholders make sense of a shifting economic landscape.

“My goal is to provide insights that are not just accurate, but genuinely useful in helping people make better decisions.”

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