The annual pace of spending in the year to August remains subdued at 3.7 per cent for the year.
“An early Father’s Day boosted spending in August as consumers appear to have lifted spend on household goods, while hospitality venues also saw people open their wallets during the month. The last time Father’s Day fell so early in the year spending retreated in September, which is worth keeping in mind as the annual spending rate still suggests a relatively weak consumer,” CBA Chief Economist Stephen Halmarick said.
The biggest spending falls in the month were Utilities (-0.3 per cent) and Transport (-0.3 per cent) as government rebates on electricity and lower petrol prices offered some relief to consumers. This led to notable shifts in spending across home ownership status as renters saw an uptick in the annual rate of spending to 1.3 per cent, while those with a mortgage (+2.8 per cent) and outright owners (+1.8 per cent) saw a slowdown in spending compared to July.
“For the first time in August we saw the impact of the various government electricity rebates on wallets which can be seen by the decreased spending on utilities. This, coupled with increased education spend, impacted spending across home ownership categories as we saw a jump in spending by renters likely due to university fees, while outright owners benefited from reduced spend on utilities as this is typically a larger share of their wallet,” Mr Halmarick said.
“While the earlier timing of Father’s Day has added some complexity to the data, we still anticipate that softer economic conditions, easing inflation, and rate cuts by other central banks will prompt the RBA to lower interest rates later in 2024. However, there is a possibility of delays pushing this into early 2025.”
The CommBank HSI Index tracks month-on-month data at a macro level and is based on de-identified payments data from approximately 7 million CBA customers, comprising roughly 30 per cent of all Australian consumer transactions.
